Author: Ken

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Podcast is Live!

A couple weeks ago that I was interviewed for a local podcast, which focuses on local business owners and professional leaders. The podcast is now live!

Please forgive the first three minutes’ audio quality and informality. Quality improves at about 3:20. In the first few minutes we were just casually shooting the breeze as audio was getting set up, but then my gracious hosts decided to keep it in the podcast because it was interesting background.

Topics covered include risks facing nearly-/recently-retired folks and how those risks can be addressed, independent advisors vs. commissioned brokers, fees, active vs. passive, types of bonds to consider, stocks vs. bonds, potential returns over next 10 years, bitcoin, Tesla, Apple, steps you can take right now, when should someone hire a professional advisor, how to determine your investment strategy, etc…

There is some great stuff in here. I hope you find it interesting and helpful and share!

Thanks again to Variant Productions for the time and opportunity!

podcast link

 

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This is the longest bull market in history…or is it….

Today, the bull market turns 3,543 days old…maybe.

We tend to break up the market cycle into bull phases (rising markets) and bear phases (falling markets), which makes sense. However, the demarcation of each, a 20% rise or fall, is completely arbitrary. Why isn’t it 30%, or 21%, or 19%? Why does it have to be 20%? In any case, that’s the most widely used definition so that’s what we’ll use here as well.

However, there is another element that confuses the issue. Although yesterday the S&P 500 set a new all-time intra-day high of $2,873.23, the S&P 500 fell off towards the end of the day so that it still has not closed above the January 26th all-time closing high of $2,872.87 (closed at $2,862.96).

That means, based on closing price, we still do not have confirmation that this is the longest bull market in history as it’s possible January 26th remains the top for the bull market that began in March of 2009 and, therefore, the beginning of the bear market. Another market issue that can only be identified in hindsight. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

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Drivers of Return Since 1982 and What That Means for the Market Over The Next 10 Years

I came across an interesting analysis in Dr. John Hussman’s recent commentary that I’d like to briefly share.

In the commentary he talks about the primary driver of market returns throughout the various cycles since 1982. It’s very important to understand this if you want to understand the potential return outcomes for the duration of the market cycle…emphasis mine Continue reading “Drivers of Return Since 1982 and What That Means for the Market Over The Next 10 Years”

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Signals Through the Noise

It’s no secret that I have been concerned about both (1) our proximity to the next bear market and (2) the potential severity of the decline in the next bear market.

A tricky thing about bear markets, however, is that we can be in one for a long time before we even realize it. That’s because bear markets can only be confirmed in hindsight only AFTER losses have become sufficiently severe. That doesn’t do the “reactive” investor any good because by the time it is known we are in a bear market (or a recession) it’s almost too late to do anything about it. The only way to avoid being reactive is to be proactive, which can only be accomplished if you understand history and are able to pick up on meaningful signals through all the noise. Continue reading “Signals Through the Noise”