Years of Gains Will Be Wiped Out in the Next Downturn

I believe that the next market downturn will wipe out several years’ worth of gains.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 price assuming hypothetical declines ranging from 10% to 60%. I also included the date of the first day the S&P 500 ever closed at or higher than yesterday’s closing price, days since that date, and approximate years since.


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Happy 8th Birthday to the Bull Market

Eight years ago from yesterday the S&P 500 set its closing low of the Great Recession bear market. We couldn’t know it at the time, but that day marked the end to one of the worst bear markets on record. Since that low close of $676, the S&P has risen 250% to $2,365 where it closed yesterday. Here’s the path it took.

Pretty impressive. In fact, this bull market is the second longest and second strongest going all the way back to the Great Depression.

In addition to experiencing the second greatest rise since the Great Depression, this market is now also experiencing the second most stretched valuations of all time… just a few percent behind the Dot-Com Bubble. To be clear, that’s not a good thing.

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Financial vs. Emotional Capacity for Risk: The Importance of Weighing Both When Building An Investment Portfolio

Your investment strategy should be determined by the lesser of (1) your financial capacity for risk and (2) your emotional capacity for risk. Otherwise, you are likely jeopardizing your financial goals.

What’s the difference you ask?

Financial capacity is the ability to achieve your financial goals even after a severe stock market decline.

Emotional capacity is the ability to stomach volatility and losses in a severe stock market decline.

A couple examples will help illustrate these concepts.

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