The Second Longest Bull Market Since WWII…How Does It End?

Executive Summary

  • The S&P 500 is currently in its second longest bull market since WWII in terms of both magnitude and duration.
  • Various historically-reliable measures of market valuation are indicating returns in U.S. stocks over the next decade may be about half their historical averages or less.
  • It’s reasonable to expect at least a 40%-50% decline in U.S. stocks during the “bear” phase of this cycle. The bear phase will complete the current market cycle that began in March of 2009 (each market cycle begins with a bull phase and ends with a bear phase). The challenge, of course, is not knowing when the bull phase will end as we’ll only know well after it’s topped out.

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Confiscation Leads to Prosperity?

As hard as it might be to believe, income tax rates in this country have at times exceeded 90%. And, perhaps even more surprisingly, the country was relatively prosperous during those same periods. Not so surprisingly, the high tax rates are often attributed with the widespread national prosperity. But we know correlation does not equal causation. Check out the tweet below for just one such recent example.

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