There’s Always A Bull Market Somewhere

An old saying is “there is always a bull market somewhere.” This year is no exception.

For the year, through yesterday’s close, we’ve witnessed long-term, “boring” Treasury bonds gain almost 24% and gold make over 9% while the global stock market has lost over 13%! All this in just about two months!

Even when things aren’t going well in stocks, it seems there is usually an asset somewhere at least holding up if not delivering positive returns.

This is why we strive to build diversified portfolios incorporating multiple assets that do not move in lockstep with each other. This smooths out the volatility of the portfolio (reduces enormous swings in the portfolio value).

Frequently with clients I’ve expressed that the bond sleeve within a portfolio acts like guardrails on the portfolio. This simply means the portfolio may not experience the extreme highs of the stock market but should also avoid the extreme lows. The experience of the last few years is a perfect illustration of this dynamic.

Don’t get me wrong. There is a lot of risk in long-term Treasuries as well. That’s especially true now that rates are so low so the upside/downside tradeoff of Treasury bond prices is much less favorable than it was even a few weeks ago. But the point is to include assets in your portfolio that inversely to each other. Disclosure: I did not own long-term Treasuries in client portfolios but limited the maturity to ten years and less via IEF and SHY/SCHO.

Yesterday, the global stock market (Proxy Symbol: ACWI) closed at a level we first saw back in September of 2017. In other words, the global stock market has essentially gone nowhere in over two years.

Disclosures:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments maintain risk of loss in addition to gain.

Data from third-parties is believed to be reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Much of the data used to interpret the markets and forecast returns are often at odds with each other and can result in different conclusions. Many different factors impact prices including factors not mentioned here.

This is NOT investment advice but merely a general commentary. Individualized investment advice cannot be provided until a thorough review of your unique circumstances and financial goals is completed.