This morning I wanted to share a few historically-reliable recession indicators that are flashing either yellow or red (as well as one still giving the green light) to help provide more context of where the U.S. may be residing in the economic cycle.
Continue reading “A Few Important Recession Indicators Flashing Yellow and Red”
Bull Case and Bear Case for Investing in Treasury Bonds Right Now
Today, I wanted to provide two opposing views of the merits of investing in U.S. Treasuries in today’s environment.
Whenever I make investment decisions for clients, I always try to consider arguments both in favor and against the investment. It’s important to understand both sides of any issue and do our best to remove our own personal biases and emotions from the decision. In this particular case, with regards to U.S. Treasuries, both sides of the argument contain valid points causing stark disagreement among even the most respected managers and pundits. Continue reading “Bull Case and Bear Case for Investing in Treasury Bonds Right Now”
Unemployment, Consumer Confidence and Recessions
I’m seeing some widespread misconceptions about the relationship of unemployment rate and consumer confidence to recessions. Below is a chart that sheds light on this historical relationship followed by a few brief comments.
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The Historical Relationship b/w the Unemployment Rate and Recessions
The True National Budget Deficit
We recently found out that the U.S. government’s official estimate of the national budget deficit for fiscal year that ended September 30th was $779 billion. Yet, when I look at the change in the national debt for the same period I see an increase of $1.25 trillion.
So if the official deficit was $779 billion, how did the national debt grow by over $1.2 trillion? Sounds like questionable accounting practices to me. Continue reading “The True National Budget Deficit”