Charts

Employment

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The -111k downward revision to April and May payrolls is a big deal.  Since the start of 2023, we have seen the data get revised lower 85% of the time. Only once before (in 1986 when the Fed was slashing rates in any event), have we seen this magnitude of payroll revisions to the downside in a 12-month period not portend an economy slipping into recession. This is why the NBER plays a waiting game. @EconGuyRosie

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“This is an ominous sign The unemployment rate has moved above its 36-month MA Such a development has happened 10 prior times since 1952 Every single time, it ended in a recession This time is NOT different” @GameOfTrades_

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“How concentrated has this market become? Just 17% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index over the last 30 days, the lowest share in at least a decade. In other words, only 85 stocks in the S&P 500 have had higher returns than the index itself over the last month. By comparison, the long-term average shows 49% of S&P 500 components outperforming the index. There has never been a time where the market was so driven by just a few stocks. Big tech is everything right now.” @KobeissiLetter

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“At least a 60-year extreme. What is the risk? That one day, it’s the opposite: Five stocks are killing the index funds while everything else outperforms. Restated, one buys an index fund to get diversification. But with record concentration, they are not getting it.” @biancoresearch

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“Mag 7: +48% YTD S&P 493: +7.5% Russell: just went red for the year again” @zerohedge 

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“We’ve never before had so few stocks outperforming the S&P 500.” @WillieDelwiche

Housing

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“BREAKING: The median new mortgage payment now requires 41.4% of the median US household income, according to Reventure. To put this in perspective, even at the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis, this metric topped at 39.3%. On a post-tax basis, new homebuyers are spending over HALF of their annual income on mortgage payments. Even renting a home now costs over 30% of the median household income in the US. The last time housing affordability was this bad, interest rates were nearly 20%. Simply having a place to live is becoming a luxury.” @KobeissiLetter

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Data from third-parties is believed to be reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Much of the data used to interpret the markets and forecast returns are often at odds with each other and can result in different conclusions.

This is not investment advice but merely a general commentary. Individualized investment advice cannot be provided until a thorough review of your unique circumstances and financial goals is completed.

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