First of all, I am very happy to see new data coming in these last few weeks indicating the Virus is far milder than initially believed. Although the World Health Organization initially indicated at least a 3.4% fatality rate, it appears the fatality rate may even end up closer to 0.05% – 0.4% roughly in the range of the flu even without a vaccine in place.
It appears the risk to young, healthy people is negligible while the older population is at greater risk especially if there are certain other pre-existing conditions present. A large portion of deaths, around 50% in some regions, are in nursing home populations. Lockdown policies around the nation should account for these facts and disparities.
We’re also starting to see COVID-19 hospitalizations waning. There were but a few overwhelmed hospitals, the nation has both excess ICU capacity and excess ventilators at this point contrary to the initial projections from the IHME and many States’ Governors’ offices. In fact, many hospitals around the nation are losing millions of dollars and furloughing staff.
In other words, the light at the end of the tunnel is coming into view. The market has been anticipating and rejoicing at this sight evident by the S&P 500’s ~30% rally from the March lows.
What’s Next? Continue reading “A Light at the End of the Tunnel”