There is an important debate currently raging between experts within the financial industry. Since it involves a question I’ve been receiving increasingly as of late I am going to address here.
The debate is whether we get significant inflation / falling U.S. Dollar or deflation / rising USD. It should be noted that there are very smart, successful investors, advisors, hedge fund managers and economists on both sides of the debate.
The recent year-over-year Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) prints have been quite high at 4.16%, 4.99%, 5.39%, and 5.37%. However, the bigger question we’re exploring here is if high inflation will be sustained for the foreseeable future or if the inflation is truly “transitory” as some policymakers are suggesting. Continue reading “Inflation or Deflation?”
A question I’ve received frequently the last couple months from many different people is about the potential for inflation given the unprecedented response to the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic. It is an important question because it impacts the best investment approach going forward as well as other personal finance decisions.
I understand the rationale behind the question. After all, trillions of dollars have been pledged between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury in the last few months in what essentially amounts to a “helicopter drop” of money on the economy. So, it is understandable that people are beginning to have concerns about the potential for inflation.
Ultimately, I believe we will get inflation mainly because the Federal Reserve will stop at almost nothing to make it happen, HOWEVER, we must allow for the possibility of getting deflation first. Continue reading “Deflation or Inflation?”
Often a new economic boom begins when things couldn’t get much worse. High unemployment, high inflation, low / negative growth, and stagnant / declining asset prices all contribute to a feeling of misery, which is usually the prevalent emotion at the bottom of a bear market or economic cycle.
Continue reading “Then vs. Now. The Beginning of A Long-Term Cycle vs. The End of One”
This note was first published to my email subscribers on 1/10/2018.
Early this morning, at 4:26 AM CST to be exact, Bloomberg broke a story that senior officials in the Chinese government are considering reducing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasury Bonds. This caused stock futures to drop, USD to drop, and bond yields to spike (i.e. bond prices to fall) before the open.
So what is this all about and why is it such a big deal? Continue reading “China and U.S. Treasuries…What was this morning’s news all about?”
Today, I’m trying something new. Instead of writing a commentary, I’ve recorded a podcast. This will allow you to access my perspectives while driving in your car!
Recently, Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a fraud. While I don’t agree it’s a fraud, I do want to comment on the irony of his comments regarding cryptocurrencies as those comments pertain to the U.S. Dollar.
Take a listen and please share if you find this podcast interesting!