The initial estimate for the quarter ended 6/30/2022 is that the economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter.
This is a major news story because two consecutive quarters of contraction has typically been the rule of thumb for the big “R” word: recession.
GDP contracted 1.6% in the first quarter and 0.9% in the second quarter.
Although, the body responsible for officially declaring recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), does not use two consecutive quarters in its technical definition. It considers a variety of other factors so we cannot say for certain that we are in a recession yet. Continue reading “Are We In A Recession?”
Well, it’s official. The body responsible for maintaining a chronology of peaks and troughs in U.S. economic activity is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER just announced that the expansion that began in June of 2009 officially peaked and ended in February of 2020. The U.S. is officially in recession. Continue reading “BREAKING: The NBER Officially Declares Recession Ending the Longest Expansion in History”
Back in February, I summarized a few potential recession signals. In that commentary I also stated;
“However, I’ll start to get really concerned when this ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index drops below 50, which would round out a trifecta of recessionary signals.”
Today, it was announced that the ISM Manufacturing PMI has contracted with a reading at 49.1 (below 50 indicates contraction). Continue reading “Final Shoe Drops”
Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Federal Reserve insider, recently wrote a great article for Bloomberg. In it she provides a couple informative stats involving the relationship between unemployment rate changes and recessions.
First, she points out, “According to historic payroll data and the National Bureau of Economic Research, every time the three-month average unemployment rate exceeded its six-month average at cycle peaks over the past 50 years — like it did in January — the U.S. economy has experienced a recession.” Continue reading “Every Time This Has Happened Over the Last 50 Years A Recession Followed”
This morning I wanted to share a few historically-reliable recession indicators that are flashing either yellow or red (as well as one still giving the green light) to help provide more context of where the U.S. may be residing in the economic cycle.
Continue reading “A Few Important Recession Indicators Flashing Yellow and Red”