As I’ve written about recently, I’ve allocated almost all of my clients’ bond investments to Treasuries and away from corporate bonds the last couple years. This worked well especially early in the pandemic / economic crisis we find ourselves in currently as corporate bonds lost value and Treasuries gained initially. However, it may be time to change tact. Continue reading “Changing Tact and Swimming Naked”
What Have the Bond Markets Been Up To?
First of all, I hope this finds you well. We say that a lot, but it has such a deeper, intense meaning today, doesn’t it? In any case, I truly hope you and your families are safe.
As for our family, we’re doing just fine. I actually think our middle child, Lexi (6), is going to go back to school far ahead of where she was when they dismissed! She’s been cranking through the math workbooks that Mom got her.
I’ve got so many things I want to talk about that I think are important right now. Don’t worry, I’m only going to focus on one topic here, but it was a struggle to figure out what I wanted to address tonight.
Ultimately, I’ve decided to talk about the bond markets as the stocks markets have, understandably, been getting all the attention. Other topics you can expect in coming days and weeks are: precious metals and gold miners, big picture overview, coronavirus metrics you may not have seen yet, deflation vs. inflation, my market timing strategies’ performance results through this historic decline (preview: they have fared very well). Continue reading “What Have the Bond Markets Been Up To?”
NOW It’s An Official Bear Market. Some Thoughts…
It’s official, the U.S. stock market has been in a bear market since it’s all-time closing high on February 19, 2020. Yesterday, the U.S. market had it’s worst day since Black Monday 1987 (market lost over 22% in a single day).
- This is the fastest retreat to a bear market from an all-time high in history taking just 16 trading days.
- This ends the bull market that began with the cycle low on March 9, 2009 for an eleven year run and 400% price appreciation. That run makes it both the longest and strongest bull market on record!
- The S&P 500 is down about 27% from its 2/19/2020 all-time high as of yesterday’s close, which is a level first seen on August 7, 2017 essentially wiping out 2.5 years of appreciation.
- The market would have to climb over 36% from yesterday’s close to get back to the all-time highs.
- For contrast, the foreign stock market (MSCI All Cap World Index) has been in a bear market since January 26, 2018 and is only up about 60% from the March 9th, 2009 lows.
Yesterday, sentiment hit EXTREMELY low levels with CNN’s Fear Greed Index at a record low of just 1.
Continue reading “NOW It’s An Official Bear Market. Some Thoughts…”
There’s Always A Bull Market Somewhere
An old saying is “there is always a bull market somewhere.” This year is no exception.
For the year, through yesterday’s close, we’ve witnessed long-term, “boring” Treasury bonds gain almost 24% and gold make over 9% while the global stock market has lost over 13%! All this in just about two months!
Even when things aren’t going well in stocks, it seems there is usually an asset somewhere at least holding up if not delivering positive returns. Continue reading “There’s Always A Bull Market Somewhere”
If I Would Have Told You A Year Ago…
If I would have told you a year ago that for the next 12 months long-term Treasuries would be up over 34%, gold would be up almost 27% and the global stock market would be up about 4.5% would you have believed me?
Yet, here we are…