I’ll make this quick.
I speak a lot about U.S. stock market valuations because they are at historical extremes exceeding both the pre-Great Depression peak and the Dot-Com Bubble peak, however, today I wanted to focus on the labor market, specifically. It’s important we understand the progress that’s been made there.
From February to April the U.S. lost over 22 million jobs. This caused the official unemployment rate to skyrocket to almost 15% from 3.5%. There was a bit of a v-shaped bounce starting in April/May as some jobs were quickly regained. However, job growth has begun stalling. Continue reading “Labor Market and Small Business Health Update”
I just wanted to take a moment to provide some important economic metrics given the truly unique environment the nation finds itself in right now.
I will provide an overview of:
- Sharp rebound in retail sales
- Projected national deficit
- Economic growth projections for Q2
- Corporate debt
- Market valuations
Continue reading “A Quick Review of Fundamentals”
Yesterday we received the worst employment report in history. But what does it portend for the future? Is there a silver lining? These are obviously unique circumstances relative to previous recessions. Continue reading “A Quick Note on Unemployment and a Silver Lining?”
I’m seeing some widespread misconceptions about the relationship of unemployment rate and consumer confidence to recessions. Below is a chart that sheds light on this historical relationship followed by a few brief comments.
Continue reading “Unemployment, Consumer Confidence and Recessions”