A couple astute observers noticed something about interest rates in my last video. If you missed that video, it can be found here.
Click on the image below to watch today’s short video answering the questions about why short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, who would buy long-term bonds in this scenario and what else does an “inverted yield curve” tell us about the economy? This one is a bit more casual as I wasn’t expecting to make a video today and threw it together fairly quickly. You’d be amazed at how much time goes into even a short video like this!
Continue reading “Why Do Short-Term Bonds Yield More Than Long-Term Bonds? Who Would Buy Long-Term Bonds Now?”
This morning I wanted to share a few historically-reliable recession indicators that are flashing either yellow or red (as well as one still giving the green light) to help provide more context of where the U.S. may be residing in the economic cycle.
Continue reading “A Few Important Recession Indicators Flashing Yellow and Red”
It’s no secret that I have been concerned about both (1) our proximity to the next bear market and (2) the potential severity of the decline in the next bear market.
A tricky thing about bear markets, however, is that we can be in one for a long time before we even realize it. That’s because bear markets can only be confirmed in hindsight only AFTER losses have become sufficiently severe. That doesn’t do the “reactive” investor any good because by the time it is known we are in a bear market (or a recession) it’s almost too late to do anything about it. The only way to avoid being reactive is to be proactive, which can only be accomplished if you understand history and are able to pick up on meaningful signals through all the noise. Continue reading “Signals Through the Noise”