Tell me what sales per share will be in twelve years’ time along with the profit margin and the price-to-earnings ratio, and I will tell you the price twelve years from now.
It’s just simple arithmetic. Easy, right?
Well, yes, it is actually not as difficult as you might think. Continue reading “Determinants of Return and A Forecast”
There is an important debate currently raging between experts within the financial industry. Since it involves a question I’ve been receiving increasingly as of late I am going to address here.
The debate is whether we get significant inflation / falling U.S. Dollar or deflation / rising USD. It should be noted that there are very smart, successful investors, advisors, hedge fund managers and economists on both sides of the debate.
The recent year-over-year Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) prints have been quite high at 4.16%, 4.99%, 5.39%, and 5.37%. However, the bigger question we’re exploring here is if high inflation will be sustained for the foreseeable future or if the inflation is truly “transitory” as some policymakers are suggesting. Continue reading “Inflation or Deflation?”
I just wanted to share a few charts that do a great job putting the current market environment in perspective.
First, this is the price-to-sales ratio of U.S. tech stocks from Jeff Weniger rivaling that of the Dot-Com Bubble mania.
Continue reading “Divergence: A Few Charts”
One of the recommendations I get the most pushback on from retiring clients is to defer their Social Security benefits until age 70.
Note: It’s not appropriate to defer for EVERY client in every situation but certainly for most folks near retirement age for whom I work it appears to be the best decision.
Before I go any further, let me very briefly explain a few of the primary options: The “Full Retirement Age” (FRA) at which people will qualify for their full benefit is around age 66-67 (depending on year of birth). However, you can begin taking a reduced benefit at age 62. Alternatively, you may elect to defer Social Security until age 70 and receive a greater monthly benefit for your lifetime and that of a lower-earning spouse’s lifetime.
For example, if you were born in 1960 or later, your FRA is age 67. By taking benefits early at 62 you would get a 30% reduced benefit. However, for example, if you were born in 1943 or later, your monthly benefit increases 8% each year you defer beyond FRA up to age 70 (or 2/3rds of 1% each month deferred).
There are several reasons that deferring to age 70 is in most people’s best interest: Continue reading “When to Take Social Security: A Real Life Case Study”
It’s been a little while since one of my commentaries because I’ve been very busy preparing (and updating) financial plans for clients old and new.
I have some long-time clients that are coming up on their retirement dates so we’ve been updating the projections accordingly and making necessary adjustments.
Additionally, about five new families have reached out within the last couple months so I’ve been busy preparing their financial plans as well. The financial plans serve as the blueprint for all major financial decisions we make together so it’s a critical, necessary first step in my relationships. It’s been a very busy but fun and very rewarding couple months!
Today, I wanted to provide an update on stock valuations to ensure we’re being mindful of the big picture and not getting too caught up in the short-term noise.
BUT, FIRST, LET US REMEMBER: Investing is a means to an end not an end in and of itself. For most people, investing is a means to an enjoyable, comfortable, stress-free retirement and maintaining their lifestyle throughout retirement. For some others, investing is also a means to gift more money to charity and family. However, for too many people as of late, “investing” has become a hobby, an obsession, a get-rich-quick scheme and/or a source of entertainment. “Investing” has simply become another method of gambling without regard to how various “investment” decisions can impact investors’ most important, long-term financial goals. That gambling mentality is another common feature of bubbles throughout history by the way.
So, let us always remember the true purpose for investing and keep that big picture in mind when making investment decisions. Let us always remember our “why.” Continue reading “YOLO, FOMO and HODL Are Not Investment Strategies…”