Success and Happiness

Please pardon this brief departure from markets and economics, but it’s too interesting and important not to share!

Recently, a client shared the late Jack Bogle’s book, Enough, with me. (Jack Bogle was the legendary founder of Vanguard). It was recommended I start with the last chapter first, which I did dutifully. In that short chapter, Mr. Bogle shares something quite valuable that’s worth sharing here.

Mr. Bogle begins this chapter by quoting Albert Schweitzer,  “Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success.”

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Auto Production Figures, Inventories and 0% Financing on New Trucks

Automobile production figures through Q1 were released this morning. I pay close attention to these numbers as contractions in automobile production has tended to lead recessions (see below).

Gray bars indicate recessions. Blue line is monthly production figures. Orange line is annual.

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Per CNBC: “Motor vehicles and parts production dropped 2.5 percent last month after increasing 2.3 percent in February. An inventory overhang in the automobile sector is weighing on production, contributing to factory employment declining in March for the first time since July 2017.” Continue reading “Auto Production Figures, Inventories and 0% Financing on New Trucks”

The Most Satisfying Financial Achievements

I came across this over the weekend and just wanted to quickly share with you.

In my experience, which includes advising on over $1 billion of total client net worth ranging from $100,000 to over $200,000,000 per household throughout my career, I find this list to be pretty accurate. Share this with the young people in your life or anyone else who needs a little motivation to keep climbing the hierarchy towards financial independence!

As a reminder, my primary objective when working with clients to help my clients become and remain financially independent for the rest of their lives. Everything I do and all my advice is aimed at that goal.

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Updated: The Price You Pay Determines Your Return

When most people are sleeping, I’m either working out or researching. Today, how about I just share my weekend research with you?

“In the short-run, the market is a voting machine… but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine.” – Warren Buffett paraphrasing his mentor Benjamin Graham

My interpretation of this brilliant, succinct statement of the types we’ve come to expect from Warren Buffett, is that in the short-term, markets trade based on investor emotions (or things like high-frequency trading), but, over the long-term, fundamentals ultimately determine price. In other words, over the long-term, price will accurately reflect the fundamental value of a company even if there is a bunch of noise in the interim. Continue reading “Updated: The Price You Pay Determines Your Return”

A Couple Interesting Market Stats

There have been a couple interesting developments since my last commentary from even a couple days ago. Most important of which is that the Federal Reserve openly acknowledged the slowing growth I warned about previously herehereherehereherehere, and here.

In response, the Federal Reserve announced they do not expect to raise interest rates again in 2019 and will end their balance sheet tapering in September. Therefore, the balance sheet will stand at about $3.5 trillion once the Fed is done. That’s about 4x larger than it was on the eve of the Great Recession of 2008! Continue reading “A Couple Interesting Market Stats”