Jobs Data Dissected

cater Important jobs data has been released over the last few weeks so I wanted to break it down and see if we can’t infer what it all means.

vermox uk First, the one that typically gets the most attention is the headline unemployment rate, which has recently declined to 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years!

speak buy neurontin online However, there are several problems with the unemployment rate metric and how it’s calculated. Merely one of those problems is that it’s a lagging indicator while we’re far more interested in leading indicators. Continue reading “Jobs Data Dissected”

Final Shoe Drops

Back in February, I summarized a few potential recession signals. In that commentary I also stated;

“However, I’ll start to get really concerned when this ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index drops below 50, which would round out a trifecta of recessionary signals.”

Today, it was announced that the ISM Manufacturing PMI has contracted with a reading at 49.1 (below 50 indicates contraction). Continue reading “Final Shoe Drops”

Painkillers Are Not Cures

Last week the Federal Reserve announced it would cut interest rates by 0.25%. This is major news because it signals the end of the “tightening” cycle and is the first rate cut since the Great Recession fallout. I wrote about the stock market’s action during rate cutting cycles a few weeks back here.

Here’s another great chart showing market performance during the last two rate cutting cycles.

Continue reading “Painkillers Are Not Cures”

Big Picture: Never A Greater Time To Be Alive

Please forgive another one of my brief digressions from markets and economics. However, I believe it’s important to exercise conscious gratitude. It is so easy to get caught up in the things we are chasing (e.g. the things we want or things we want to do) that we forget to be grateful for the things we have.

Looking at the big picture, there’s probably never been a better time to be alive. Continue reading “Big Picture: Never A Greater Time To Be Alive”

Fed Rate Cuts and the Market’s Response. A Historical Perspective…

I was asked a great question by a client this morning. “With all this news of rate cuts from the Fed, how does this impact my portfolio?”

The market has broadly rallied on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates again…likely even at its next meeting (July 30-31). This is an action the Fed hasn’t taken since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007 – 2009.

But how has the market actually performed, historically, once the Fed has begun easing after a period of tightening? It’s not necessarily bullish at all: Continue reading “Fed Rate Cuts and the Market’s Response. A Historical Perspective…”