Meme Stocks, Bored Monkey Pictures, Digital Pokémon

“The real problem is that a decade of experimental distortion encouraged unprecedented speculation in every conventional asset class, not to mention fringe speculation in assets detached from any standard of value, including meme stocks, pictures of bored monkeys, and digital Pokémon posing as ‘currency.’ As with every similar episode across history, the unwinding of this bubble in the form of financial crisis is already quietly baked in the cake.”

– Dr. John Hussman, “Central Bankers Wandering in the Woods” September 2023

Today we update Treasury bond and U.S. stock market forward return estimates.

Treasury bond return estimates are very easy. It’s simply the current yield offered by the bonds… assuming the U.S. government doesn’t default of course. Here are the current annualized yields for various maturities: Continue reading “Meme Stocks, Bored Monkey Pictures, Digital Pokémon”

What’s The Yield Curve and Why Does It Matter?

The yield curve has been a fairly reliable indicator of recessions. But, first, let me clarify what the yield curve is.

The yield curve is simply the annualized yields of various treasuries that mature at different points in time. You can then plot those yields on a chart to visualize the “curve.”

For example, plot the annualized yields for a 3-month treasury on a chart, the 6-month, the 9-month, the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 5-year and so on out until the 30-year maturity. Then you connect the dots and it creates a “curve,” much like the sample below. Continue reading “What’s The Yield Curve and Why Does It Matter?”

And THAT’s Why We Own Treasuries

What a week it has been culminating with the largest bank failure since 2008 (Silicon Valley Bank). I’ll write a special commentary on that in the coming week as I’m sure there are some questions.

Today, I just wanted to point out why we own Treasuries of varying maturities. They certainly haven’t been the greatest investment for the last few years as the Fed has been raising interest rates, but they are in portfolios to serve a specific purpose over the course of a full market cycle. And, as an aside, now they actually offer some attractive yields that they haven’t offered in about 15 years. Continue reading “And THAT’s Why We Own Treasuries”

Why Do Short-Term Bonds Yield More Than Long-Term Bonds? Who Would Buy Long-Term Bonds Now?

A couple astute observers noticed something about interest rates in my last video. If you missed that video, it can be found here.

Click on the image below to watch today’s short video answering the questions about why short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, who would buy long-term bonds in this scenario and what else does an “inverted yield curve” tell us about the economy? This one is a bit more casual as I wasn’t expecting to make a video today and threw it together fairly quickly. You’d be amazed at how much time goes into even a short video like this!







Continue reading “Why Do Short-Term Bonds Yield More Than Long-Term Bonds? Who Would Buy Long-Term Bonds Now?”