Jobs Data Dissected Important jobs data has been released over the last few weeks so I wanted to break it down and see if we can’t infer what it all means.

glucophage price First, the one that typically gets the most attention is the headline unemployment rate, which has recently declined to 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years!

buy clenbuterol online impart However, there are several problems with the unemployment rate metric and how it’s calculated. Merely one of those problems is that it’s a lagging indicator while we’re far more interested in leading indicators. Continue reading “Jobs Data Dissected”

Final Shoe Drops

Back in February, I summarized a few potential recession signals. In that commentary I also stated;

“However, I’ll start to get really concerned when this ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index drops below 50, which would round out a trifecta of recessionary signals.”

Today, it was announced that the ISM Manufacturing PMI has contracted with a reading at 49.1 (below 50 indicates contraction). Continue reading “Final Shoe Drops”

Painkillers Are Not Cures

Last week the Federal Reserve announced it would cut interest rates by 0.25%. This is major news because it signals the end of the “tightening” cycle and is the first rate cut since the Great Recession fallout. I wrote about the stock market’s action during rate cutting cycles a few weeks back here.

Here’s another great chart showing market performance during the last two rate cutting cycles.

Continue reading “Painkillers Are Not Cures”

Fed Rate Cuts and the Market’s Response. A Historical Perspective…

I was asked a great question by a client this morning. “With all this news of rate cuts from the Fed, how does this impact my portfolio?”

The market has broadly rallied on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates again…likely even at its next meeting (July 30-31). This is an action the Fed hasn’t taken since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007 – 2009.

But how has the market actually performed, historically, once the Fed has begun easing after a period of tightening? It’s not necessarily bullish at all: Continue reading “Fed Rate Cuts and the Market’s Response. A Historical Perspective…”

Auto Production Figures, Inventories and 0% Financing on New Trucks

Automobile production figures through Q1 were released this morning. I pay close attention to these numbers as contractions in automobile production has tended to lead recessions (see below).

Gray bars indicate recessions. Blue line is monthly production figures. Orange line is annual.


Per CNBC: “Motor vehicles and parts production dropped 2.5 percent last month after increasing 2.3 percent in February. An inventory overhang in the automobile sector is weighing on production, contributing to factory employment declining in March for the first time since July 2017.” Continue reading “Auto Production Figures, Inventories and 0% Financing on New Trucks”