Final Shoe Drops Back in February, I summarized a few potential recession signals. In that commentary I also stated;

dramamine uk “However, I’ll start to get really concerned when this ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index drops below 50, which would round out a trifecta of recessionary signals.”

еxercise Today, it was announced that the ISM Manufacturing PMI has contracted with a reading at 49.1 (below 50 indicates contraction). Continue reading “Final Shoe Drops”

Painkillers Are Not Cures

Last week the Federal Reserve announced it would cut interest rates by 0.25%. This is major news because it signals the end of the “tightening” cycle and is the first rate cut since the Great Recession fallout. I wrote about the stock market’s action during rate cutting cycles a few weeks back here.

Here’s another great chart showing market performance during the last two rate cutting cycles.

Continue reading “Painkillers Are Not Cures”

Fed Rate Cuts and the Market’s Response. A Historical Perspective…

I was asked a great question by a client this morning. “With all this news of rate cuts from the Fed, how does this impact my portfolio?”

The market has broadly rallied on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates again…likely even at its next meeting (July 30-31). This is an action the Fed hasn’t taken since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007 – 2009.

But how has the market actually performed, historically, once the Fed has begun easing after a period of tightening? It’s not necessarily bullish at all: Continue reading “Fed Rate Cuts and the Market’s Response. A Historical Perspective…”

Quarterly Market Update (2019.Q2)

Last Friday marked the completion of a tremendous rebound from the fourth quarter of last year where we saw about a 20% decline in just a few months.

Below I’ve provided returns of various markets for the second quarter, year-to-date and since the global stock market peak on 1/26/2018. The first half of the year was one of the strongest on record for the U.S. market and the best since 1997. However, even given the very strong returns in the first half of 2019, the global stock market has still been unable to regain its all-time high from almost a year-and-a-half ago.
Continue reading “Quarterly Market Update (2019.Q2)”