Investor Education / Blog

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Free Beer! But First…What Free Beer Teaches Us About Economics

Wedding season is almost upon us. I love weddings. When I think of weddings I think of dressing up, mingling with friends and family we haven’t seen in a while, fancy venue, and… free beer.

I’ve experienced weddings from a few different perspectives: as a guest, as the co-star, in a supporting role and as the bartender. Bartending is a great gig for a college-age kid by the way.

Bartenders are notoriously observant…especially once the guests are loosened up and start filling the dance floor because this is the time when things start to slow down for the bartenders giving them a chance to really observe the festivities. Not long after this point (sometimes it feels far too soon when you’re a guest) the party begins winding down, and the cleanup begins.

But you don’t need to be a bartender to make the following observations. In fact, I’m sure you’ve already made these observations:

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Household Debt

Household and Nonprofit Organizations Debt exceeds prior peak set in Q3 of 2008 during heart of the financial crisis. Although, it remains lower than the prior peak when measured in terms of GDP.

Both student loans and auto loans are sharply higher than Q3 of 2008.

 

 

 

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A New President, A New Baseline

With the inauguration of a new President, it seems appropriate to identify a new economic and market baseline as a fresh starting point for the incoming administration.

First, the conditions President Trump is inheriting then we’ll see how those conditions stack up to his five immediate predecessors’.

All data as of 12/31 of year prior to inauguration unless indicated otherwise.

There are many observations to be made, but I’ll focus on a few I find particularly interesting.

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The Second Longest Bull Market Since WWII…How Does It End?

Executive Summary

  • The S&P 500 is currently in its second longest bull market since WWII in terms of both magnitude and duration.
  • Various historically-reliable measures of market valuation are indicating returns in U.S. stocks over the next decade may be about half their historical averages or less.
  • It’s reasonable to expect at least a 40%-50% decline in U.S. stocks during the “bear” phase of this cycle. The bear phase will complete the current market cycle that began in March of 2009 (each market cycle begins with a bull phase and ends with a bear phase). The challenge, of course, is not knowing when the bull phase will end as we’ll only know well after it’s topped out.

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