Are You Prepared for the Next Bear Market?

My expectation for losses in U.S. stocks during the next bear market is over 60%, which would take us back about twenty years and would require at least a 150% gain just to get back to even.

What impact would such a loss have on your portfolio? What impact would that have on your ability to retire or sustain your retirement lifestyle? Would any other financial goals be impacted? How about the toll on your mental health to see such a large chunk of your life savings wiped out. Continue reading “Are You Prepared for the Next Bear Market?”

The Second Longest Bull Market Since WWII…How Does It End?

Executive Summary

  • The S&P 500 is currently in its second longest bull market since WWII in terms of both magnitude and duration.
  • Various historically-reliable measures of market valuation are indicating returns in U.S. stocks over the next decade may be about half their historical averages or less.
  • It’s reasonable to expect at least a 40%-50% decline in U.S. stocks during the “bear” phase of this cycle. The bear phase will complete the current market cycle that began in March of 2009 (each market cycle begins with a bull phase and ends with a bear phase). The challenge, of course, is not knowing when the bull phase will end as we’ll only know well after it’s topped out.

Continue reading “The Second Longest Bull Market Since WWII…How Does It End?”