- The S&P 500 is currently in its second longest bull market since WWII in terms of both magnitude and duration.
- Various historically-reliable measures of market valuation are indicating returns in U.S. stocks over the next decade may be about half their historical averages or less.
- It’s reasonable to expect at least a 40%-50% decline in U.S. stocks during the “bear” phase of this cycle. The bear phase will complete the current market cycle that began in March of 2009 (each market cycle begins with a bull phase and ends with a bear phase). The challenge, of course, is not knowing when the bull phase will end as we’ll only know well after it’s topped out.