Author: Ken

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[Ad Age] Can Self-Driving Cars Ever Really Be Safe?

“Analysts estimate that by 2030, self-driving cars and trucks (autonomous vehicles) could account for as much as 60% of U.S. auto sales. That’s great! But autonomous vehicles are basically computers on wheels, and computers crash all the time. Besides that, computers get hacked every day. So you gotta ask, “Can self-driving cars ever really be safe?”

The short answer is “No.” Self-driving cars can never really be safe. They will be safer! So much safer that it’s worth a few minutes to understand why.”

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Quarterly Market Update (2017.Q1)

The following topics are covered in this quarter’s review:

  • A strong quarter for stocks around the world
  • International stocks outperform U.S. stocks
  • Market valuations just barely lagging the Great Depression and Dot-Com Bubbles
  • General economic health
  • Auto industry woes along with two exciting developments

 

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Warren Buffett Answered My Question on CNBC! Here’s My Response.

Back in February, CNBC interviewed Warren Buffett. For several weeks in advance the interview, CNBC asked viewers to submit questions via Twitter under the hashtag #AskWarren. I’m not sure how many questions were submitted, but they ended up choosing mine along with a few others.

This is pretty exciting for someone who knew from the age of 14 they wanted to be in finance and closely followed Warren Buffett, read his books, etc…

I’ve included a link to the video of the exchange below. This link will start the video at the point where my question was asked. You only need to listen for a couple minutes. Take a look. My question probably comes off as a little strange if you don’t know the context so, below the link, I explain the context of my question along with my response to his answer.

Continue reading “Warren Buffett Answered My Question on CNBC! Here’s My Response.”

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The Second Longest Bull Market Since WWII…When Will It End?


Executive Summary

  • The S&P 500 is currently in its second longest bull market since WWII in terms of both magnitude and duration.
  • Various historically-reliable measures of market valuation are indicating returns in U.S. stocks over the next decade may be less than half their historical averages.
  • It’s reasonable to expect about a 50% decline in U.S. stocks during the “bear” phase of this cycle just to bring valuations back to historical averages.

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Years of Gains Will Be Wiped Out in the Next Downturn

I believe that the next market downturn will wipe out several years’ worth of gains.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 price assuming hypothetical declines ranging from 10% to 60%. I also included the date of the first day the S&P 500 ever closed at or higher than yesterday’s closing price, days since that date, and approximate years since.


Continue reading “Years of Gains Will Be Wiped Out in the Next Downturn”