The S&P 500 just logged one of its worst quarters in history and one of its best quarters in history back-to-back in the first half of 2020.
Specifically, the S&P 500 lost 20% in Q1 while making about 20% in Q2. The only other times in history this has happened were both during the Great Depression (Q3 or 1932 and Q2 of 1938) (Source: @Sentimentrader).
I’ve written about the potential for huge price swings in both directions previously.
This puts the S&P 500 down a little over 3% on the year while the global stock market is down over 7%. Meanwhile, gold and bonds are up on the year.
From the US market peak on February 19th to the short-term bottom on March 23rd, the S&P 500 lost about 34% but has since made almost 39% from that point. Note: A 34% drop requires a 51.5% gain to get back to even. As I write this, the S&P 500 needs about another 9% to regain the all-time closing high.
Meanwhile, the official unemployment rate resides somewhere in the mid-teens and only about half of adult Americans (16+) are currently employed (chart below).
The American economy is currently in a very steep recession and bankruptcies for companies with at least $50m in liabilities in Q2 were most since 2009 and 2nd-worst quarter in history.
I hope you all have wonderful, safe Fourth of July celebrations in the coming days!
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