Wild Ride So Far in 2020

The S&P 500 just logged one of its worst quarters in history and one of its best quarters in history back-to-back in the first half of 2020.

Specifically, the S&P 500 lost 20% in Q1 while making about 20% in Q2. The only other times in history this has happened were both during the Great Depression (Q3 or 1932 and Q2 of 1938) (Source: @Sentimentrader).

I’ve written about the potential for huge price swings in both directions previously.

This puts the S&P 500 down a little over 3% on the year while the global stock market is down over 7%. Meanwhile, gold and bonds are up on the year.

 

From the US market peak on February 19th to the short-term bottom on March 23rd, the S&P 500 lost about 34% but has since made almost 39% from that point. Note: A 34% drop requires a 51.5% gain to get back to even. As I write this, the S&P 500 needs about another 9% to regain the all-time closing high.

Meanwhile, the official unemployment rate resides somewhere in the mid-teens and only about half of adult Americans (16+) are currently employed (chart below).

The American economy is currently in a very steep recession and bankruptcies for companies with at least $50m in liabilities in Q2 were most since 2009 and 2nd-worst quarter in history.

 

I hope you all have wonderful, safe Fourth of July celebrations in the coming days!

 

 

Disclosures:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments maintain risk of loss in addition to gain.

Data from third-parties is believed to be reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Much of the data used to interpret the markets and forecast returns are often at odds with each other and can result in different conclusions. Many different factors impact prices including factors not mentioned here.

This is NOT investment advice but merely a general commentary. Individualized investment advice cannot be provided until a thorough review of your unique circumstances and financial goals is completed.

Views provided here are current only as of the moment of posting and are subject to change at any time without notification.